HORSE RACING

WHY THIS PAGE?

This page is dedicated to providing various systems that have been tried in the past. As they say there is nothing new racing it is just how its wrapped and applied. These are not meant for you to race out and immediately apply but rather are offered to give some ideas or angles that may be of interest and could be factored into your racing investments.

Systems

There are many advocates of systems simply because it is easier to find the selection with a few simple rules rather than go through the slog of class or time ratings with its many variables and even then you need to sort out the top contenders as to which horse can win based on its fitness, barrier draw, jockey on board and whether the horse likes the track. There are probably a few more variables and some would say that these too can be factored in the mathematical equations to derive the rating selections. So many of us find that that its all too hard so we either pay someone to provide us the ratings or we purchase a system.

System Rules

Having purchased a system we can suddenly find that its not as easy as the advertising blurb would have us believe to arrive at the final selections. Some system come with Angle A, B, C, D E and F. Each with the one basic rule and then each angle has a myriad of additional rules to obtain the selection. Sometimes you may end up with two or three selections in the same race. The seller can then claim that they got the winner at $2.00 or $2.50 when in fact you lost because you backed 2 other horses in the race. So what we need from a system is relatively few simple rules with only one contender that fits the bill. Easily said but are there actually systems around like that that are consistent or suffer from the dreaded run of outs which will not only break your heart but also your bankroll?

Backing Several Runners

There is a system which calls for backing several runners in a race, in fact up to 5 and is based on the Dutch Book method. This is simply where you divide the price into 100 therefore a horse quoted at $4.00 would require an outlay of 25 units. If the first five horses in the market add up to say 75 units or less than the race is a bet. Obviously  a race with a hot favourite at odds on would eliminate the race simply because say a price of $1.80 would require almost 56 units leaving precious little for the next four runners to make up the 75 units.

The Maths

The pundits tell me that this system delivers the winner in every eight out of ten races. This could be borne out by looking at the winning percentages of the top five betting market contenders. The Favourite is normally expected to win 35% of the time, the 2nd favourite 21%, 3rd fav 13%, 4th 10% and the 5th 8% for a total of 87%.  However the scale is not linear because it can vary depending on the price of the favourite. At odds on the winning percentage of the favourite is 50% or better however the total shared between the top 5 is still around 80% plus. So the figures would seem to check out.

We have to make enough money out of the 8 winning races to cover the loss on the other two events. Where you lose you come down with a thud of 75 units or thereabouts.  So we are looking to make a minimum of 20 units per winning race which is 240 units to offset the the loss of 140 units in the losing 2 races. So you can see on paper it looks like a winning proposition. Is there a way to ensure that you do not lose; perhaps. Simply only back races where the five top contenders in the betting market give you an outlay of 70 or less units. That might mean however that you are backing in a large field with many chances one of which may not be amongst your selections. The obvious next step is to reduce the size of the field you are operating in. So we could reduce it to say 15 thereby you will have a third of the field running for you. Obviously the fewer the contenders the less likely you will be able to get five horses running for you at the desired 70 to 75 units.

Who’s Odds

In many countries the tote is the only betting guide to the odds, Australia still has bookmakers on course as well as off course corporate bookmakers. Their markets can be slightly different to those of the tote. I would tend to follow the markets with the bookmakers. Five minutes before the race I would back the horses. Now here’s the action part because in Australia we have wall to wall racing. Something like 12 meetings each with 8 races are covered and if you are running about backing 5 selections per race you will have to draw the line somewhere. So you may just have to confine your activities to two venues. Alternatively if you are doing it on the Internet the job becomes a little easier.

At The Races

We will look at yesterday’s racing in Sydney Australia which was run at Rosehill. The first race after scratchings only had 7 contenders so it was out. The second race had 11 contenders and the odds of the top five were as follows:

Tuxedo Royale $4.40 – Outlay 100/4.4 = 27.7 or 23 units

Peck at $6.00 – Outlay 100/6 = 16.6 or 17 units

Zachary $6.50 – Outlay 100/6.5 = 15.38 or 15 units

Endor $8.50 – Outlay 100/8.5 = 11.76 or 12 units

Dream Supreme $9.00 – Outlay 100/9 = 11.11 or 11 units

This is a total of 78 units. Peck won and paid $6.00 or $5.70 which was the best on the tote. At $6.00 the return is 102 units making a profit of 24 units. The question in this race is would you operate on it with 78 units to outlay.

The third race had 12 final contenders but you would need 88 units to cover the top 5. You would gain the winner Beg at $8.50 for a return of 12 units. Probably a non race. The fourth race had 10 starters and the Favourite won and you would have won 20 units with an outlay of 80 units. Another borderline race as was the following race. The 5th race saw the favourite win at $4.40 and gain another 20 units. Race 6 had 13 starters and the top five required an outlay of 75 units and Verminator won at $9.00 for a return of approximately 25 units. Race 7 had 11 starters but the required outlay for the top 5 was 93 units. So you would scrub the race. Just as well because the winner did not come from the top five. The final race started with 12 horses and the outlay required 92 units as the unplaced favourite started at $2.00 or evens in bookmaking parlance. You did get the winner here.

The Outcome

The final outcome was a win of 81 units if you backed all five races. If you confined your efforts to less than 80 units you would only have backed 2 races for a return of 49 units. One race loss would wipe out your winnings. Still you get lots of action and there are some who do it. Is it worth the effort? You would need a strong will to pass up races that are just on 80 units outlay or more. Also the odds are volatile and can change while you are betting. You may have got the required odds about 4 of the 5 selections and the other one suddenly takes you over the top as it shortens. What do you do then? Its not an easy game.

Arnold Vee

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SYSTEMS BASED ON POPULARITY

Poll Favorites

Today we will examine horse racing systems based on tipster’s polls. These are the folk (racing journalists or reporters) who provide you with their top three tips for every race on the card either in the daily newspaper or in a published form guide. Generally these people are working to a deadline when the acceptances come through 2 or 3 days ahead of race day. The tips are made based on their observations and the form. So a horse with a couple of wins to its name at its recent starts will generally be the top tipped horse across the poll.

The Favorites Poll is made up of the three horses that top the individual tipster’s tips; three points for a first, 2 points for a second tip and 1 point for a third. Add these up and you obtain the Poll favourites say from a panel of 5 or 10 tipsters. Blindly following these top poll tips will ensure you a slow but sure way to the poor house or the local soup kitchen. They invariably start as the favourite at poor odds in comparison with their chance of winning.

Variations

There are variations on the theme however and some of them may have some basis for a winning system e.g.

• Stop at a winner per meeting
• Start with the poll favorite if it is 5/2 or better ($3.50 or better)
• If not take the second most favored if it is 7/2 or better ($4.50)
• If not take the third favored at 4/1 or longer ($5.00)
• If all poll favorites are less than the required odds scrub the race. Also if the Poll Favorite is evens or less scrub the race.
• If the top two are equal poll favorites take the first one at 5/2, where there are equal poll points for the second and third favorites take the first at 7/2.

Testing the System

Last Saturday at Rosehill in Australia I made up a poll from a couple of the local papers and their tips and came up with the following:

Race 1 was a loss the second poll tip was the selection and did not run a place.

Race 2 again a loss, the top poll tip was again unplaced

Race 3 A similar story to race 2

Race 4 This is where it gets tricky. The top poll Tip Divya opened at $3.50 went to $4.00 and then shortened to $3.20 and won. Had we backed it early say at $4.00 we may have got our money back recouping the losses from the first three races or lost slightly for the day. Otherwise on to Race 5. If you waited till post time there was no bet as it was then less than the required $3.50

Race 5 The top Poll tip Gybe closed with the Bookmakers at $4.00 and paid up to $4.50 on the tote. So if you had of got to here and won $3.50 after the $1 invested is taken from the dividend you would have been down by 50c for the day.

In the previous Saturday the winner came up in the third race as the third poll favourite Reuben Perceival won and paid $5.00 so a win of $2.00 for the day on an outlay of $3.00.

Outcome

Some hope for this system? I would say yes. A mild progression in stakes could also have seen a profit or get square last Saturday. However progressive betting can be a dangerous game and is will be subject for another article.

Another Twist on Tip Polls

Another system with Tip Polls is where only one tipster picks a certain runner as their top pick not tipped by anyone else. Has the tipster got a different slant on the race, maybe? The first must be a solo and you should have a minimum of six tipsters in the poll. Now if there are two unique horses tipped it must have the least number of points so you may have to add up the number of times it has been tipped second or third and allocate points as follows 1 for third, 2 for second and 3 for its win selection. You can obtain some really good prices with this one but also a higher run of outs. Check it out with some past results before you put on your hard earned money.

Arnold Vee

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